The Conference
The challenges that a nuclear North Korea poses to its neighbors, the U.S. and the global community have constituted headline news for the past two decades. Ever since the country withdrew from the Six-Party Talks in 2009, its efforts to develop nuclear weapons have greatly intensified. They have led to the country being subjected to increasingly tough bilateral and multilateral sanctions. Nevertheless, North Korea’s historic commitment to the Kim family’s ideology of juche, or “self-reliance,” has emboldened the country’s diplomatic, financial, and military autarky, heightened its resistance to normal engagment with other states, and reduced the prospect of a negotiated solution.
As of May 2017 the “hermit kingdom” had conducted five underground nuclear tests and was believed to possess between 13 and 30 nuclear weapons. It also has a rapidly advancing delivery capability that threatens the immediate region as well as the U.S. mainland. Over the past six months the crisis has escalated dramatically, with North Korea repeatedly testing ballistic missiles. This has sparked intense public and policy debate about the options for dealing with the threat. The debate has focused mainly on the strategies of military action, additional sanctions and U.S. pressure on China in order to get China to put pressure on North Korea. Insufficient attention has been paid to the option of negotiations.
CERL is aware that negotiations with North Korea have been unsuccessful historically and does not advocate that negotiations at this point in time are necessarily feasible or appropriate. Rather, we maintain that negotiations should be taken seriously since there may well be no other viable approach. There is an evident risk that coercive measures and threats will be counter-productive, heightening rather than de-escalating tension. Consequently, the option of negotiations, and the relationship between negotiations and coercive strategies, should be the subject of well-reasoned debate.
The CERL symposium will contribute to informed policy and public discussion on the North Korea crisis by examining the potential for, and obstacles to, negotiations with that country as a means to resolving or at least managing the crisis.
The symposium will have two consecutive panel discussions followed by a keynote speaker. All the speakers are experts on North Korea and reflect a balance of senior scholars, policy experts, former diplomats, and security practitioners. Their perspectives and interactions will enrich public and policy discussion on what is arguably the most severe contemporary international crisis.
The first panel will address the overarching question of whether the U.S. should engage in negotiations with North Korea. On the one hand, negotiations might help legitimize the North Korean government and reward it for having unlawfully developed nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Negotiations might also undermine international efforts to deter the development of nuclear weapons elsewhere. On the other hand, the North Korea crisis is so severe and the nuclear stakes are so high that the U.S. may have little or no responsible choice but to pursue a negotiated arrangement. If the U.S. chooses not to engage in negotiations, what are its alternative strategies and are they likely to succeed? If negotiations did take place, what would be their goal: containment of the nuclear threat or restoration of full diplomatic relations?
The second panel will explore the dynamics of negotiations with North Korea if the U.S. decides to adopt this strategy. Are there any pre-conditions that should be met before negotiations commence? Would sanctions and threats of military force encourage or discourage negotiations? Which countries should participate in the negotiations? Should there be a third-party mediator? How should the United Nations be involved? What should the goals be and what kind of concessions should the U.S. be willing to make in order to attain those goals? How does North Korea view negotiations and how does it view the U.S.? And what can be learned from the negotiations on the Iran nuclear program?
Schedule
October 11, 2017
Location: Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania
1:00 – 1:15 pm Welcoming Remarks:
William Burke-White, Richard Perry Professor and Inaugural Director, Perry World House; Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania Law School Claire Finkelstein, Co-founder and Faculty Director, CERL; Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania
1:15 – 2:45 pm Panel 1: Should the United States enter into negotiations with North Korea to resolve its ongoing conflict?
This panel will address the overarching question of whether the U.S. should engage in negotiations with North Korea. On the one hand, negotiations might help legitimize the North Korean government and reward it for having unlawfully developed nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Negotiations might also undermine international efforts to deter the development of nuclear weapons elsewhere. On the other hand, the North Korea crisis is so severe and the nuclear stakes are so high that the U.S. may have little or no responsible choice but to pursue a negotiated arrangement. If the U.S. chooses not to engage in negotiations, what are its alternative strategies and are they likely to succeed? If negotiations did take place, what would be their goal: containment of the nuclear threat or restoration of full diplomatic relations?
Moderator: Professor Jacques deLisle, Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law & Professor of Political Science; Director, Center for East Asian Studies, University of Pennsylvania Law School
Panelists:
Professor Bridget Coggins, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa Barbara
Ms. Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Dr. Robert Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Director of International Security Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Dr. Leon Sigal, Director, Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, Social Science Research Council
2:45 – 3:00 pm Break
3:00 – 4:30 pm Panel 2: Were the United States to enter into negotiations with North Korea, which strategies and tools would be most effective?
This panel will explore the dynamics of negotiations with North Korea if the U.S. decides to adopt this strategy. Are there any pre-conditions that should be met before negotiations commence? Would sanctions and threats of military force encourage or discourage negotiations? Which countries should participate in the negotiations? Should there be a third-party mediator? How should the United Nations be involved? What should the goals be and what kind of concessions should the U.S. be willing to make in order to attain those goals? How does North Korea view negotiations and how does it view the U.S.? And what can be learned from the negotiations on the Iran nuclear program?
Moderator: Professor Laurence Nathan,Advisor, Oxford Research Group Sustainable Security Programme; Director of the Centre for Mediation in Africa, University of Pretoria; Visiting Professor, Cranfield University
Panelists:
Professor Eileen Babbitt,Director of the Institute for Human Security and Professor of Practice of International Conflict Analysis and Resolution, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Professor Antonia Chayes, Professor of Practice of International Politics and Law, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea
Ms. Suzanne DiMaggio, Director and Senior Fellow, New America
Ambassador Mark Lippert, Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea
4:30 – 5:00 pm Break
5:00 – 6:30 pm Keynote Program
This portion of the symposium will consist of brief remarks by the keynote presenters, followed by a moderated conversation between them that addresses issues implicated in the foregoing panels, which in turn, will be followed by questions from the audience.
Governor Bill Richardson, Former Governor of New Mexico; former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations; former U.S. Member of Congress; former U.S. Secretary of Energy
Mr. David Sanger, Chief Washington Correspondent, The New York Times
Moderator: Professor Claire Finkelstein, Co-founder and Faculty Director, CERL; Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania
Participants
Director of the Institute for Human Security and Professor of Practice of International Conflict Analysis and Resolution, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Richard Perry Professor and Inaugural Director, Perry World House; Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania Law School
Professor of Practice of International Politics and Law, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California, Santa Barbara
Director for Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law & Professor of Political Science; Director, Center for East Asian Studies, University of Pennsylvania Law School
Former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea
Director and Senior Fellow, New America
Co-founder and Faculty Director, CERL; Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania
Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea (2014-17)
Vice President for Scholars and Director of International Security Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Advisor, Oxford Research Group Sustainable Security Programme; Director of the Centre for Mediation in Africa, University of Pretoria; Visiting Professor, Cranfield University
Former Governor of New Mexico, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, former U.S. Member of Congress, former U.S. Secretary of Energy
Chief Washington Correspondent, The New York Times
Director, Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, Social Science Research Council
Background Readings
Panel 1: Should the United States enter into negotiations with North Korea to resolve its ongoing conflict?
Allison, Graham, “The North Korean Threat Beyond ICBMs,” The Atlantic, Aug. 28, 2017, at https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-nuclear-kim-obama-china/538194/.
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Cargill, Thomas F., and Elliott Parker. “Economic Reform and Alternatives for North Korea.” The Survival of North Korea: Essays on Strategy, Economics, and International Relations, edited by Kim, Suk Hi, et al., McFarland & Co., 2011, pp. 99-116, www.business.unr.edu/faculty/parker/Cargill-Parker_NK_2010.pdf. Accessed 3 June 2017.
Cathcart, Adam, and Steven Denney. “North Korea’s Cultural Diplomacy in the Early Kim Jong-un Era.” North Korean Review, vol. 9, no. 2, 2013, pp. 29-42. White Rose Research Online, eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/80373/. Accessed 9 June 2017.
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Corrado, Jonathan, and Brian Moore. “North Korea’s Outsourced Workforce: How Defectors Slipped Through China’s Borders.” Foreign Affairs, 9 June 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016-06-09/north-koreas-outsourced-workforce.
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—-. “What does Kim Jong Un want with all these missile tests? Talks, perhaps?” The Washington Post, 8 June 2017, www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/what-does-kim-jong-un-want-with-all-these-missile-tests-talks-perhaps/2017/06/08/85125afe-49cd-11e7-b69d-c158df3149e9_story.html?utm_term=.e3a820d31e12. Accessed 10 July 2017.
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Krasner, Stephen. “A Least Worst Option on North Korea.” Lawfare, 15 May 2017, Lawfare Institute & Brookings Institution, www.lawfareblog.com/least-worst-option-north-korea.
Lee, Jong-Woon, and Kevin Gray. “Cause for Optimism? Financial Sanctions and the Rise of the Sino-North Korean Border Economy.” Review of International Political Economy, vol. 24, no. 3, 2017, pp. 424-453. Taylor & Francis Online, dx.doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2017.1301977.
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Luhn, Alec. “Russia Wants North Korea’s Money, Not Its Refugees.” Foreign Policy, 25 January 2017, foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/25/russia-wants-north-koreas-money-not-its-refugees/.
Lynch, Colum. “Confidential U.N. Report Details North Korea’s Front Companies in China.” Foreign Policy, 28 February 2017, foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/28/confidential-u-n-report-details-north-koreas-front-companies-in-china/.
McNamara, Luke. “Why is North Korea So Interested in Bitcoin?” Threat Research Blog, www.fireeye.com/blog/threat-research/2017/09/north-korea-interested-in-bitcoin.html. Accessed 13 September 2017.
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Reilly, James. “The Curious Case of China’s Aid to North Korea.” Asian Survey, vol. 54, no. 6, 2014, pp. 1158-1183. University of California Press, dx.doi.org/10.1525/as.2014.54.6.1158. Accessed 3 June 2017.
Sanger, David E. and William J. Broad. “North Korea’s Missile Success is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say.” The New York Times, 14 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “Trump Reminded Threats Work Differently in Diplomacy than in Real Estate.” The New York Times, 16 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/world/asia/trump-korea-iran-venezuela.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “Talk of ‘Preventive War’ Rises in White House over North Korea.” The New York Times, 20 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/asia/north-korea-war-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “Trump Forges Ahead on Costly Nuclear Overhaul.” The New York Times, 27 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/27/us/politics/trump-nuclear-overhaul.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan.” The New York Times, 28 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “How the U.S. Could Respond to Another North Korean Missile Test.” The New York Times, 7 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-us-options.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Choe Sang-Hun. “North Korea Launches another Missile, Escalating Crisis.” The New York Times, 14 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and William J. Broad. “The Rare, Potent Fuel Powering North Korea’s Weapons.” The New York Times, 17 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/17/world/asia/north-korea-rocket-fuel-missiles.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “The Contradiction Buried in Trump’s Iran and North Korea Policies.” The New York Times, 20 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/world/asia/trump-iran-north-korea-.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “In Tillerson’s China Stop, Questions on North Korea but Slim Chance of Clarity.” The New York Times, 29 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/29/world/asia/rex-tillerson-china-north-korea.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
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PANEL 2: Were the United States to enter into negotiations with North Korea, which strategies and tools would be most effective?
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Sanger, David E. “U.S. Opens Door to Talks with North Korea, While Flexing Military Muscle.” The New York Times, 3 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/us/politics/tillerson-north-korea-negotiations-missile-test.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “North Korean Nuclear Test Draws U.S. Warning of ‘Massive Military Response’.” The New York Times, 3 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/world/asia/north-korea-tremor-possible-6th-nuclear-test.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Motoko Rich. “Motives of North Korea’s Leader Baffle Americans and Allies”. The New York Times, 4 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Choe Sang-Hun. “U.S. Urges Fuel Cutoff for North Korea, Saying it’s ‘Begging for War’.” The New York Times, 4 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
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Sanger, David E. “Prospect of Atmospheric Nuclear Test by North Korea Raises Specter of Danger.” The New York Times, 22 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/world/asia/north-korea-atmospheric-nuclear-test-risks.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Peter Baker. “White House Weighs Response to North Korea’s Threats.” The New York Times, 23 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/world/asia/trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Rick Gladstone. “North Korea Says it has the Right to Shoot Down U.S. Warplanes.” The New York Times, 25 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/asia/trump-north-korea.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. “U.S. in Direct Communication with North Korea, Says Tillerson.” The New York Times, 30 Sept. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/world/asia/us-north-korea-tillerson.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
Sanger, David E. and Peter Baker. “Trump Says Tillerson is ‘Wasting His Time’ on North Korea.” The New York Times, 1 Oct. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/01/us/politics/trump-tillerson-north-korea.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fdavid-e.-sanger.
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Contact us
For any questions regarding the conference or registration, please contact: Jennifer Cohen at [email protected]